The Chicago Bears once again are the early offseason darlings after securing the hottest head coaching candidate in years in Ben Johnson. This alone is a jolt.
From a personnel standpoint, they do have some glaring holes to fill, albeit with a talented foundation in place. They also have some tough decisions ahead of free agency and the NFL draft.
To start, let’s look at their upcoming draft picks. They will pick 10th, 39th (CAR), 41st, 72nd, 149th, 197th (Pitt), 235 (CIN) and 242nd (MIN). Ian Cunningham is a leading candidate to get the Jacksonville Jaguars GM job, so they could potentially add a 3rd rd compensatory pick. Which will be closer to pick 100 if he’s hired.
Financially they sit at a team salary of $192,866,057 with an estimated cap around $277,584,460. This gives them $62,968,403 in cap space. Shoutout to Over the Cap for the info. Now the fun part. They could add some significant cap by cutting some players before the 6/1 deadline. Let’s look at the most likely players.
- Gerald Everett – $5,500,000
- Ryan Bates – $4,000,000
- Jonathan Owens – $1,800,000
- DeMarcus Walker – $5,250,000
- Kevin Byard – $7,000,000
- Cairo Santos- $2,080,000
Of these players, my only lock to keep is Jonathan Owens (who to me played well for his price) and after some consideration, Cairo Santos. Santos was a close call but in the end one more go for a dependable kicker. Why my close call though? Well, with Ben Johnson at the helm, it’s likely the Bears go for it on 4th down a lot more in usual FG range. A critical range for field goals this year could be well within the 55-58 yard range, and we all remember the Bears didn’t let him kick one past 53 yards. This offense might need a bigger leg but definitely not using resources this year to do so.
Everett, Bates, and Walker were my easiest to cut. Byard I thought long and hard about it, but at 32 years old and having to extend Kyler Gordon, my budget on secondary decreased a bit.
We could get bold here and trade D’Andre Swift but this likely won’t happen. Next year you can get out of this deal. To save $1,890,000 on the cap you could cut him but it has to be post 6/1. Roschon Johnson could find himself a cut casualty as well if they add 2 running backs this offseason. He would save about a million pre 6/1 and just over a million post 6/1. We’ll keep both for now though.
So by cutting the 4 players, the Bears would now sit at $84,718,403 in cap space. The NFL draft rookie pool for the Chicago Bears sits at $12,348,813 but estimated cap hit on rookies will be $5,628,813. This is because players drafted replace players on roster etc. So we have about $79,000,000 for extensions and free agency. Gordon is the only one that is a must to me. Braxton Jones and Elijah Hicks are possibilities as well but for this we won’t count it. A Gordon extension could be a bump of roughly $10,00,000 so for free agency we will say we have about $69,000,000 left.
Now let’s get cooking in free agency. The biggest needs on this roster are obviously the offensive and defensive lines. They also need a safety, a WR3 and likely adding a running back or two. The running back is more likely to come via draft.
My plan here is to attack the offensive line market in free agency. You can certainly draft as many as you want, but you do not want more than one rookie on that line. Looking at the possible free agents, the leading candidates are..
- Trey Smith OG KC
- Ronnie Stanley OT BAL
- Mekhi Becton OG PHI
- Drew Dalman C ATL
Stanley is solid but we do not see much improvement from Braxton Jones per dollar in this case. So we are going to skip tackle and fix the interior via free agency.
My #1 goal is signing Trey Smith. Smith is the top option for good reason. He was PFF’s 11th graded guard this past season. In 2024, Robert Hunt was the 7th or 8th graded guard and Carolina gave him $100 million at a $20 million AAV. We likely see something similar in AAV with Smith. That’s fine with me though. Using inflation, we’ll say $22 million a year here. If the Bears were smart, they would front load the deal also. This is a must and it’s time for Poles to splurge.
My next signing is Drew Dalman. Caleb Williams needs a steady long term solution at the center position. Dalman finished last season the 4th ranked center per PFF. Great run blocking, something we know Ben Johnson is going to want to overhaul on this offense. We saw what Ragnow meant to Detroit. He has some work to do in pass protection but he’s not the worst at it. This also has been said to be a weaker class for center in the draft. Instead of gambling this, we will splurge a little. Loyd Cushenberry inked a 4-$50 deal a year ago as the top center. We are likely looking at $11/$12 a year here as well.
This leaves the Bears with roughly $35 million in cap.
My next FA signing is Mack Hollins WR from Buffalo. He was a key cog for the Buffalo offense even if it all didn’t show up on a stat sheet. He led the team in receiving touchdowns but he also is an amazing blocker, locker room presence, and can make big plays when called upon. Bears don’t need a big time WR3. It’s time for Odunze to take a prominent role. They need an established vet who does the little things though. Willing to do a $9-$10 million dollar deal here. He made $2,600,000 a year ago so being bumped to 4,500,000 seems reasonable here.
Pass rush I am going to skip in free agency. Nothing stands out for the price. Going to keep $30 million or so in cap free for future reasons. Possibly a big trade if we can swing it.
Next up is the draft. Now I am not a scout and will never pretend to be. So my likes are based on what the sites and actual professionals are telling us.
At pick 10 we will get a good player. But I highly doubt Will Campbell, Jalon Walker or Mason Graham will be there. This is when I pivot. No, not trade for Myles Garret. No, not trade back. I am trading up. It’s time for Poles to have his defining draft moment, and I don’t mean lucking into Caleb Williams. My move is…. get ready for this….Ryan Poles and Ian Cunningham (baring he gets the job) make their first trade together and I move up to 5 and they move back to 10. The Jaguars need a lot of help on the defensive side of football and most importantly in the secondary. The Bears have the draft capital to move up as well. Not sure about the package but I am willing to pay for it.
Moving to ten for the Jaguars will secure them with one of the better pass rushers or Will Johnson potentially. As for the Bears, the Bears get Mason Graham. A true game wrecker on the defensive line.
We likely need to move a 2nd in the Graham deal. So if we are left with 41 that is when I draft Gary Zebel. He is the senior bowl darling and can play every position on the offensive line. Many say he is best suited for guard. This pick would have our line set. Does Braxton Jones/Gary Zebel/Drew Dalman/Trey Smith/Darnell Wright sound good? It sounds so much better to me. Now some mocks vary and some say no chance he’s there, some say he falls. We could substitute Tyler Booker as well and I love it.
In round 3, this is when we draft Kaleb Johnson and Ben Johnson gets his thunder back.
This is where I will stop as now it’s just massive guessing. We still need one more pass rusher but the defensive line is beefing up as is. We have some cap, can trade or maybe they find a gem in the draft. The market didn’t seem right though for it this FA class. It is possible Myles Garret is traded post 6/1. His dead cap is lessened on Browns and he saves a very cap hurt team about 5 million then. The Browns are rebuilding, they just haven’t admitted it yet. That’s when Bears could strike as I reserved that money. If not Garret, someone else will become available at some point.
Hope you like my offseason plan.
